How low can the Bitcoin price go?
Now that the BTC price double top appears confirmed, analysts have reset their Bitcoin targets to $50,000 and below.
Bitcoin
BTC
$58,051
price has declined by more than 9.5% over the last three days after rallying to $64,000 at the start of the week.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin suddenly dropped from a high of $63,223 on July 2 to an intra-day low of $56,709 on July 4.
Bitcoin’s price is down 18% over the last 30 days, and its daily trading volume has dropped by 32% over the same period. However, several indicators hint at a deeper correction, making a swift recovery from these losses unlikely in the coming days.
Analysts set $50,000 target for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s ongoing downward trend is true to what experts at 10x Research predict could be the lower target for BTC price. They warn that this steep decline may just be the beginning, with Bitcoin potentially dropping further to $50,000.
Breaking the psychological level at $60,000 toward $50,000 marks a significant shift in market sentiment, which 10x Research attributes to buy flows drying up “while sell flows are accelerating.”
Markus Thielen, an analyst at 10x Research, suggests that the downward spiral was foreseeable, stating:
“Our data from early June already hinted at an overbought market ripe for correction.”
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On June 24, Thielen shared the following chart projecting Bitcoin’s break out of its consolidation range and decline toward $50,000, citing the potential realization of a double-top pattern.
A double top pattern forms when the price reaches two similar peaks with a slight dip in between, maintaining support above a common line known as the “neckline.” This pattern typically resolves when the price breaks below the neckline, potentially falling by an amount equal to the distance between the peaks and the neckline.
“As we’ve observed over the past three months, range trading is a complex phase, often marked by several false breakouts,” Thielen wrote, adding:
“Topping formations have historically left the average retail investor vulnerable, with many altcoins experiencing significant drops.”
In contrast to Thielen, Michael Van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, has a slightly higher target for Bitcoin on the downside. Van de Poppe predicts Bitcoin will break below the May 1 low at $56,000 to collect the demand-side liquidity lying under it before declining to $52,809.
Bitcoin price loses key support level at $58,000
Bitcoin’s drop from an opening of $60,145 to an intraday low of $56,709 saw BTC break below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a support it has enjoyed for over 10 months.
Commenting on the latest price action, popular trader Skew noted that Bitcoin’s price had crossed below its 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time in 10 months.
At the time of publication, the 200-day EMA was at $58,246, above the spot price.
The 200-day EMA is an important line of defense for Bitcoin, and losing it could expose BTC to further risks. Data from onchain data aggregator IntoTheBlock reveals that the path with the least resistance for Bitcoin is on the downside.
The In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) chart below shows that Bitcoin faces relatively stiff resistance on the upside compared to the support it enjoys on the downside.
Potential support is above $50,000, where approximately 264,360 BTC were previously bought by roughly 747,140 addresses. This suggests that Bitcoin’s downside could be capped here.
Bitcoin bear flag places downside target below $50,000
From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin price action has led to the formation of a classic bear flag pattern, a bearish continuation setup that forms after the price consolidates inside an up-sloping range following a sharp price decline.
Bear flags typically resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline and drops by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. This puts the lower target for Bitcoin price at $49,200 — levels last seen on Feb. 12.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index is oversold at 29. This explains the intensity of the ongoing sell-off, boosting BTC’s chances of reaching its bear flag target.
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