AUD/USD exchange rate fluctuation analysis - Fed policy expectations affect the market
The AUD/USD exchange rate has seen significant changes recently. It is currently stable at around 0.6725, mainly due to market expectations that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may release a signal of further easing policy at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, which has caused the dollar to weaken.
This trend reflects the foreign exchange market's expectations for the future direction of the U.S. dollar. Investors are paying close attention to Chairman Powell's speech to judge the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. We will continue to pay close attention to subsequent developments and provide investors with the latest market analysis.
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is currently finding support, currently holding steady around 0.6725, as the greenback weakens further in anticipation of Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
The Australian dollar's resilience was bolstered by minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest meeting, which showed the central bank was in no rush to ease monetary policy despite a slowdown in Australian inflation.
The RBA remains cautious and expects inflation to remain above its target range of 2-3% until the end of 2025. This suggests that interest rates are likely to remain stable for some time, providing a stable backdrop for the Australian dollar.
The latest data shows that Australia's private sector performed strongly in August, especially the services industry, while the contraction in the manufacturing industry eased. This depicts that the Australian economy is adjusting well and may not need immediate monetary stimulus to maintain momentum. Investors are closely watching for signs of future policy changes, which will affect foreign exchange forecasts.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD recently hit highs of 0.6760, but a correction is now expected. The short-term focus is on a possible drop to 0.6684, the first important support level. Once this target is reached, the 0.6725 level may be retested, establishing a potential consolidation range.
A break below this consolidation range may trigger a further decline to 0.6600, or even extend to 0.6555. The MACD indicator supports the bearish outlook in the short term, with the signal line at the top and a downward trend expected.
In the hourly frame, AUD/USD has recovered from the recent low of 0.6696 to 0.6725, indicating that it is in a correction phase. Anticipating a continuation of this downward trend could see the pair targeting 0.6686 soon. If this support holds, a rebound to 0.6725 could follow.
With the Stochastic indicating overbought, the signal line is expected to drop from 80 to 20, also supporting the possibility of further declines.
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